Assumption Inventory is most useful when it helps you make one real decision.
Make the decision visible, show what it depends on, and test the risky part first.
Try saying
“Here are the options and evidence. What should we learn before we commit?”
Name the choice
Write down the decision in plain English.
Compare evidence
See what supports or weakens each option.
Choose a test
Turn uncertainty into a small next step.
Assumption Inventory
What this is for
Expose the invisible guesses that can make a roadmap fail even when delivery is excellent.
When this helps
- Teams argue about solutions without naming the belief underneath.
- Research is broad because nobody knows what needs to be proven.
- Risk appears only after a large investment.
How it works
The inventory turns ideas into explicit assumptions, records confidence and impact, and connects each assumption to a research question or experiment.
Before you start
- A strategy, opportunity, PRD, or roadmap item.
- The belief that must be true for it to work.
- A confidence and impact estimate.
What you should see
- A ranked list of assumptions.
- A testable question for the riskiest belief.
- Links to experiments, interviews, or decisions.
Try it now
- Open Assumption Inventory and add the belief behind a current bet.
- Write what would have to be true and what evidence would change your mind.
- Score impact and confidence, then sort for risk.
- Create an experiment or research task for the highest-risk assumption.
A real example
A team assumes that admins, not end users, choose the invite flow. That assumption changes the research audience, the copy, and the success metric, so it should be tested before polishing the UI.
Your next move
Run the test with Alex Research or Experiment Tracker.
Ready to apply this?
Start with your own product and keep the first read grounded. You can create an account after you see the result.